A simplified hindcast method for the estimation of extreme storm surge events in semi-enclosed basins     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

Human presence, coastal erosion, and tourism activities are increasing the attention to coastal flooding risk. To perform risk assessments, long time series of observed or hindcast wave parameters and tide levels are then necessary. In some cases, only a few years of observation are available, so that observed extreme data are not always representative and reliable. A hindcast system aimed to reconstruct long time series of total tide levels may be of great help to perform robust extreme events analysis and then to protect human life, activities as well as to counteract coastal erosion by means of risk assessments. This work aims to propose a simplified method to hindcast storm surge levels time series in semi-enclosed basins with low computational costs. The method is an extension of a previous work of some of the authors and consists of a mixed approach in which the estimation of storm surge obtained by using the theory of linear dynamic system is corrected by using a statistical method. Both steps are characterized by low computational costs. Nevertheless, the results may be considered reliable enough also in view of the simplicity of the approach. The proposed method has been applied to the Manfredonia case study, a small village located in the Southern Adriatic Italian coast and often prone to coastal flooding events. The comparison of extreme events estimated on the basis of hindcast levels time series is satisfactorily similar to those estimated on the basis of observed tide series.  相似文献   

Configurations of community in flood risk management     

Aleksi Räsänen  Vera Kauppinen  Sirkku Juhola  Gunhild Setten  Haakon Lein 《Norsk geografisk tidsskrift. Norwegian journal of geography》2020,74(3):165-180

ABSTRACT

Despite a notable increase in the literature on community resilience, the notion of ‘community’ remains underproblematised. This is evident within flood risk management (FRM) literature, in which the understanding and roles of communities may be acknowledged but seldom discussed in any detail. The purpose of the article is to demonstrate how community networks are configured by different actors, whose roles and responsibilities span spatial scales within the context of FRM. Accordingly, the authors analyse findings from semi-structured interviews, policy documents, and household surveys from two flood prone areas in Finnish Lapland. The analysis reveals that the ways in which authorities, civil society, and informal actors take on multiple roles are intertwined and form different types of networks. By implication, the configuration of community is fuzzy, elusive and situated, and not confined to a fixed spatiality. The authors discuss the implications of the complex nature of community for FRM specifically, and for community resilience more broadly. They conclude that an analysis of different actors across scales contributes to an understanding of the configuration of community, including community resilience, and how the meaning of community takes shape according to the differing aims of FRM in combination with differing geographical settings.  相似文献   

长白山景区旅游安全风险动态评价研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

孙滢悦  杨青山  陈鹏 《地理科学》2019,39(5):770-778

以长白山景区旅游安全为研究对象,以鱼骨图、动态贝叶斯、GIS技术等为基本研究方法,从研究区自然环境、社会环境及责任人为3个方面出发,筛选景区致险因子,构建景区旅游安全风险危险性评价指标体系,利用动态贝叶斯方法综合构建景区旅游安全风险动态评价模型;并以实测数据及景区统计数据为依据,划分景区旅游安全风险评价的4个动态时段,综合实现景区旅游安全风险动态风险评价。研究结果表明：① 中等以上风险区域呈条带状分布;② 高风险区域与主要景点重合;③ 长白山景区安全风险发生高概率的时段发生在第三个时段（12:00~14:00）;较高概率发生分别在第二个时段（10:00~12:00）与第四个时段（14:00~16:00）;中等概率发生较高的时段在第四个时段（14:00~16:00）;较低概率发生在第一个时段（8:00~10:00）。  相似文献   

遥感数据融合研究进展与文献定量分析(1992—2018)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张立福  彭明媛  孙雪剑  岑奕  童庆禧 《遥感学报》2019,23(4):603-619

近年来,遥感应用的快速发展推动了遥感载荷指标性能的不断提升。但由于遥感传感器的硬件技术瓶颈,遥感数据无法同时具有高空间分辨率、高光谱分辨率、高时间分辨率的指标特性。遥感数据融合是解决该问题的有效方法。为了深入了解目前遥感数据融合技术的研究进展情况,本文对国内外1992年—2018年间在该领域有一定影响力的相关成果进行了调研、分析与归纳总结。首先对遥感数据融合相关论文的年发文量、发文国家与机构、发表刊物以及关键词等进行了统计,梳理其发展历史及趋势;系统性的总结了各类数据融合算法,将其分为面向空间维提升的融合算法、面向光谱维提升的融合算法以及面向时间维提升的融合算法3类,并对各类算法的优势与适用性进行了分析;归纳总结了遥感数据融合的质量评价指标,包括有参考影像的融合评价指标以及无参考影像的融合评价指标;最后对遥感数据融合进展进行了总结与展望。  相似文献   

外来与乡土红树种间竞争十五年的群落现状与发展趋势     

黄晓敏  诸姮  卢昌义 《海洋科学》2019,43(9):27-33

为了探究经过15年种间竞争后的外来无瓣海桑(Sonneratia apetala)与乡土红树植物秋茄(Kandelia obovata)的群落现状与发展趋势,采用样方法对福建省厦门市同安湾典型红树林群落特征开展实地研究。结果表明:(1)无瓣海桑是无瓣海桑群落中的优势种,而秋茄仅在该群落北侧与无瓣海桑少量混交,秋茄+无瓣海桑群落为种植秋茄和无瓣海桑的茂密混交林;(2)调查幼苗天然更新情况中发现,在两个群落中秋茄均有幼苗自然生长,但均未发现无瓣海桑幼苗;(3)生长状况的调查发现,无瓣海桑长势较秋茄差,其倒伏数量和倒伏程度明显比秋茄严重;(4)无瓣海桑在秋茄+无瓣海桑群落中的生长状况优于在无瓣海桑群落,倒伏程度较轻。综上可见,无瓣海桑在福建省厦门市该研究样地及其周边更新成林和扩散困难,未有入侵秋茄群落的优势;无瓣海桑在风浪环境下,较秋茄更易出现倒伏和枯死等不可逆生长现象;红树林种植过程中采用"外来种+乡土种"的模式,可提高整个林分的抗风浪能力,但需注意种植布局规格的合理性,可避免外来速生快长种与乡土种紧邻混交产生较大的种间竞争,减小对乡土种生长的影响。  相似文献   

辽宁省海洋生态修复现状、存在的问题及对策建议          下载免费PDF全文

王鹏  张连杰  闫吉顺  于永海  张盼 《海洋开发与管理》2019,36(7):49-52

随着沿海经济带的开发建设,海洋生态环境承受着巨大压力,湿地、河口、海湾、海岛等重要生态系统面临前所未有的威胁。对海洋生态的保护修复已经迫在眉睫、刻不容缓。文章基于辽宁省海洋资源环境的特征,结合海域开发利用及海洋生态修复现状,探索辽宁省海洋生态修复工作面临的主要问题,并提出生态修复重点及对策建议,截至2017年,累计整治修复岸线长度约140km,整治修复海域面积超过50km~2。辽宁省海洋生态修复工作面临的主要问题有:近岸局部海域水体污染、生态受损;湿地、滩涂面积有缩减趋势;河口生态系统脆弱,生物多样性指数降低;海湾生态功能退化;海岛生态环境失衡。辽宁省应重点开展海湾环境综合治理以及滨海湿地、岸滩、岛礁等整治修复工作。  相似文献   

Ecological Worldview as the Central Component of Environmental Concern: Clarifying the Role of the NEP     

Chenyang Xiao  Riley E. Dunlap  Dayong Hong 《社会与自然资源》2019,32(1):53-72

This study examines whether an ecological worldview—operationalized by the New Ecological Paradigm (NEP) Scale--serves as the source of coherence of Environmental Concern (EC). Using data on four samples from the 1992 Gallup “Health of the Planet” Survey and the 2003 and 2010 Chinese General Social Surveys, we found that in all samples not only is the NEP the most powerful predictor of EC, but it also mediates the effects of socio-demographic variables on EC as hypothesized. The results confirm that the NEP is the source of coherence of EC, making it a meaningful construct.  相似文献   

Time to talk knowledge     

Mike Taylor 《New Zealand geographer》2019,75(2):85-92

As part of the secondary school qualification repackaging, the Ministry of Education has requested the geography education community define what constitutes their “critical body of knowledge.” In this article, I discuss three knowledge‐oriented themes focused on: (a) recent assessment trends in geography; (b) the predictive value of NCEA Level 3 geography with 100‐level success and (c) the nature of knowledge as expressed by the New Zealand Curriculum and assessment. Taken together, these themes suggest a need for a serious conversation about knowledge in school geography, as a pre‐cursor to the re‐design of the geography standards matrix.  相似文献   

无人机倾斜摄影三维模型在城市雨洪风险评估中的应用     

刘斌  唐雅玲  马晨燕  白少云 《测绘通报》2019,(10):46-50,66

研究城市雨洪风险问题，对提高城市洪涝灾害监测、预报的准确性，以及促进城市防洪决策制定具有重要的意义。鉴于高精度的城市三维模型可以提供丰富地理信息，便于准确分析淹没情况，本文针对当前城市洪涝模型对地形数据的高敏感性，且雨洪风险评估研究的准确性受限于地形数据精度的问题，提出利用无人机倾斜摄影测量技术重建高精度实景三维模型，并结合GIS的空间分析功能，以淹没深度为关键指标进行研究区的雨洪风险评估。通过提取不同重现期下研究区的淹没深度信息，进行可视化渲染实现三维淹没分析，可以直观地看到研究区的淹没情况，作为暴雨内涝风险管理依据，同时对城市规划布局有一定的参考价值。  相似文献   

改进的小波阈值函数对变形监测数据的去噪研究     

甘若  陈天伟  郑旭东  段青达  潘梅 《大地测量与地球动力学》2020,40(1):17-22

基于小波分析中传统的阈值函数,结合其他学者提出的小波阈值函数,提出一种改进的小波阈值函数,并将其应用于变形监测数据的去噪处理。理论分析和算例表明,新的小波阈值去噪函数能够有效去除噪声。  相似文献